National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at 548 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Hurricane Maria Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:35:13 GMT

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:15:53 GMT

Hurricane Maria Graphics

Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:01:47 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:29:43 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at 458 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Hurricane Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 20:47:15 GMT

Hurricane Lee Graphics

Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 20:45:49 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 21:23:16 GMT

Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 39

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 252039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Maria's coldest cloud tops and deepest convection continue to be
over the far eastern and northern portions of the circulation, but
a
small area of convection has re-developed near the center this
afternoon.  SFMR data from a NOAA aircraft investigating Maria
indicate that the maximum winds remain near 70 kt, and that the
area of hurricane-force winds extends about 90 nm from the
center over the eastern semicircle.

Maria continues its slow northward trek.  A slow northward motion
should continue for another couple of days as Maria moves around
the western side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic,
but the forward speed is atypically slow due to ridging over the
northeastern United States.  A deep mid-latitude trough will be
moving into the northeastern U.S. late this week, which is
expected to cause Maria to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered through the first 48
to
72 hours, but there are still some speed differences beyond that
time.  The NHC forecast track lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope through 72 h, and is close to the various consensus aids
late in the period.

Cooler waters, moderate westerly shear, and dry air are expected
to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the next few days.
However, Maria is likely to remain a strong cyclone throughout the
forecast period.  Extratropical transition is likely to begin in
96 h with Maria completing this process near the end of the
forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New
England.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local
weather office for more information.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 31.7N  73.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 33.5N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 34.4N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 35.3N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 36.3N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 38.8N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 45.0N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 252038
PWSAT5
                                                                   

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39                

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017              

2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                           

                                                                   

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   

31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 

70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                        

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY             

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z
FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z
SAT
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X) 
13(13)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4(
4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7(
7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2(
4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X(
3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X(
4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)  
X(14)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   5(19)   X(19)  
X(19)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   6(16)   4(20)   X(20)  
X(20)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  1   5( 6)   7(13)   5(18)   4(22)   X(22)  
X(22)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  1   6( 7)   6(13)   7(20)   4(24)   X(24)  
X(24)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   5( 7)   7(14)   8(22)   4(26)   X(26)  
X(26)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  3   6( 9)   9(18)   7(25)   4(29)   X(29)  
X(29)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  1   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   2(14)   X(14)  
X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  7  19(26)  15(41)   8(49)   3(52)   X(52)  
X(52)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  4   8(12)   7(19)   4(23)   3(26)   X(26)  
X(26)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  5  13(18)  10(28)   4(32)   3(35)   X(35)  
X(35)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  5  10(15)   8(23)   5(28)   2(30)   X(30)  
X(30)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  4   5( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   2(19)   X(19)  
X(19)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)  
X(16)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)  
X(15)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  
X(10)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 252038
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

Little Lee has weakened a little since the previous advisory. Over
the past few hours, the previously clear 10-15 nmi diameter eye has
become cloud filled, briefly becoming completely obscured. An
average of the available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
UW-CIMSS ADT, UW-CIMSS SATCON, and NHC AODT is 75 kt, and that is
initial intensity used for this advisory.

Lee has completed a tight cyclonic loop and is now moving toward
the west-southwest or 255/07 kt.  A narrow mid-level ridge is
expected to continue building to the north of Lee, forcing the
small hurricane on a westward track for the next day or so. As an
upper-level trough approaches from the west, the hurricane should
turn toward the northwest on Wednesday and Thursday as the western
portion of the subtropical ridge erodes. By Friday and beyond, Lee
is forecast to get caught up in the brisk southwesterly flow ahead
of the aforementioned trough and accelerate toward the northeast at
forward speeds in excess of 20 kt. The official track forecast has
been shifted westward closer to the consensus models through 96 h,
and then lies close to the previous advisory track at 120 h.

The modest southeasterly vertical wind shear that has been
affecting
Lee today is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global models to abate
shortly, and remain at less than 10 kt for the next 48 hours or so.
As a result, some slight strengthening will be possible when the
cyclone moves over warmer 28 deg C SSTs in 36-48 hours. Afterwards,
increasing southwesterly vertical shear should induce slow but
steady weakening, with Lee making the transition into an
extratropical low by 120 h when the cyclone will be located over
18C-20C water temperatures and in a 30-40 kt sheared environment.

Lee is forecast to remain a compact hurricane throughout the
forecast period, with only a small increase in the 50- and
34-kt wind radii expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 30.5N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 30.4N  51.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 30.5N  53.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 31.0N  55.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 31.8N  55.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 34.5N  54.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 40.2N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 46.9N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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